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		<title>Going Rogue: America&#8217;s Unconventional Warfare in the Mideast</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 26 May 2012 17:57:00 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Arab Awakening]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani The intent of U.S. [Unconventional Warfare] UW efforts is to exploit a hostile power’s political, military, economic, and psychological vulnerabilities by developing and sustaining resistance forces to accomplish U.S. strategic objectives…For the foreseeable future, U.S. forces will predominantly engage in irregular warfare (IW) operations. So begins the 2010 Unconventional Warfare (UW) Manual [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=608&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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<p><em>By Sharmine Narwani</em></p>
<blockquote><p>The intent of U.S. [Unconventional Warfare] UW efforts is to exploit a hostile power’s political, military, economic, and psychological vulnerabilities by developing and sustaining resistance forces to accomplish U.S. strategic objectives…For the foreseeable future, U.S. forces will predominantly engage in irregular warfare (IW) operations.</p></blockquote>
<p>So begins the 2010 <a href="http://www.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/Special_Forces_Report.pdf" target="_blank">Unconventional Warfare (UW) Manual of the US Military’s Special Forces</a>. The manual attached here (TC 18-01) is an interim publication, developed to address the definition of Unconventional Warfare and some other inconsistencies in UW Doctrine. The new UW document (ATP 3-05.1) is in the initial draft and not yet available, though sources tell me it is unlikely to differ much from TC 18-01.</p>
<p>But most of us have not had the pleasure of leafing through this truly revelatory blueprint that shows how America wages its dirty wars. These are the secret wars that have neither been approved by Congress, nor by the inhabitants of nations whose lives – if not bodies – are mauled by the directives on these pages.</p>
<p>A quote from President John F. Kennedy in 1962 opens the document. These few lines illustrate a core Washington belief that US forces have the right to destabilize, infiltrate, assassinate, subvert – all in service of questionable foreign policy objectives, with no evident consideration of a sovereign state’s preparedness or desire for change:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>There is another type of warfare—new in its intensity, ancient in its origin—war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of by combat, by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It preys on unrest.<span id="more-608"></span></em></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Target: Middle East</strong></p>
<p>The Bush Doctrine paved the way for the mainstreaming of unconventional warfare by establishing the principle of pre-emptive actions against a state that <em>may</em> one day pose a threat to American interests. It didn’t offer any specific criteria to gauge those threats, nor did it attempt to explain why anyone outside the United States should be held accountable for US “interests” – be they commercial, security or political.</p>
<p>The doctrine went largely unchallenged, and has been played out with disastrous results throughout the Middle East in the past decade. The prime targets of UW have traditionally been nations and groups that oppose US primacy in the region – mainly the Resistance Axis consisting of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas – but UW has been carried out to some degree in virtually any nation where this Axis carries some influence.</p>
<p>The most nefarious aspect of UW &#8211; aside from the obvious violations of international law pertaining to sovereignty, territorial integrity and loss of human life/property, etc – is the proactive and aggressive effort to psychologically sway a population against its government. It is at this entry point where UW fails every American test of “values.”</p>
<p>The Arab Intifadas of 2011 provided a unique opportunity – amidst regional and sometimes domestic chaos – to ramp up UW activities in “hostile” states, whether or not populations sought regime change. Prime examples are Iran, Syria and Libya – all of which have been UW targets in the past year, at different levels of infiltration and with markedly different results.</p>
<p>Here is a chart from the Special Forces UW manual that demonstrates the scope of activity at the early stages:</p>
<p><a href="/sites/default/files/P_19_Diagram.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="insert-image"><img class="imagecache-3cols" title="" src="http://alakhbaren.spiru.la/sites/default/files/imagecache/3cols/P_19_Diagram.jpg" alt="" /><span class="image-caption">Click to enlarge</span></span></a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani/post_1586_b_823534.html">February 14</a> was supposed to be the kick-off in Iran, but the Islamic Republic was already on guard, having gained experience with UW subversion in the aftermath of the 2009 Iranian presidential elections.</p>
<p>The use of social media to coordinate protests and widely disseminate anti-regime narratives in Iran’s post-election period marked a new era in the internet revolution globally. The Pentagon lost no time in claiming cyberspace as an “operational domain” and in the past year has substantially increased its budgetary allocation to subversion activities on the web.</p>
<p>Last July – <a href="http://www.salon.com/2011/10/26/pentagon_game_to_divide_iranians_and_arabs/singleton">as I wrote in this article</a> &#8211; the technology arm of the Department of Defense, DARPA, announced a $42 million program to enable the U.S. military to “detect, classify, measure and track the formation, development and spread of ideas and concepts (memes)” within social media.</p>
<p>Wired magazine calls the project the Pentagon’s “<a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/07/darpa-wants-social-media-sensor-for-propaganda-ops/">social media propaganda machine</a>” because of its plans for “counter messaging of detected adversary influence operations.”</p>
<p>In order to “allow more agile use of information in support of [military] operations” and “defend” against “adverse outcomes,” the project will enable the automation of processes to “identify participants and intent, measure effects of persuasion campaigns,” and ultimately, infiltrate and redirect social media-based campaigns overseas, when deemed necessary.</p>
<p>The UW campaign in Iran appears to more or less have faltered at technology sabotage, social media infiltration and assassinations. Libya is at the other extreme – and the following chart gives a bird’s eye view of the UW manual’s playbook for operations of that magnitude:</p>
<p><a href="/sites/default/files/P_14_Diagram.jpg" target="_Blank"><span class="insert-image"><img class="imagecache-3cols" title="" src="http://alakhbaren.spiru.la/sites/default/files/imagecache/3cols/P_14_Diagram.jpg" alt="" /><span class="image-caption">Click to enlarge</span></span></a></p>
<p>The Libyan scenario of course was slightly different in that it was conducted under NATO cover, with the US military “leading from behind.” In addition, the large-scale UW operation’s success relied less on ground combat than on air cover and intelligence-sharing for attacks conducted largely by Libyan rebels.</p>
<p><strong>Target: Regime Change in Syria</strong></p>
<p>In Syria, the UW task would have been a mix of the two. Because of the domestic popularity and strength of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad revealed here in a <a href="http://wikileaks.cabledrum.net/cable/2006/12/06DAMASCUS5399.html">2006 Wikileaks Cable</a>, UW activities would necessarily need to start with some subversion of the population before graduating to a Libyan-style scenario.</p>
<p>Just as the Wikileaks cable recommends identifying “opportunities” to expose “vulnerabilities” in the Syrian regime and cause sectarian/ethnic division, discord within the military/security apparatus and economic hardship, the UW manual also instructs special forces to “exploit a hostile power’s political, military, economic, and psychological vulnerabilities.”</p>
<p>The Syrian demographic landscape is reflected in the UW manual: “In almost every scenario, resistance movements face a population with an active minority supporting the government and an equally small militant faction supporting the resistance movement. For the resistance to succeed, it must convince the uncommitted middle population…to accept it as a legitimate entity. A passive population is sometimes all a well-supported insurgency needs to seize political power.”</p>
<p>To turn the “uncommitted middle population” into supporting insurgency, UW recommends the “creation of atmosphere of wider discontent through propaganda and political and psychological efforts to discredit the government.”</p>
<p>As conflict escalates, so should the “intensification of propaganda; psychological preparation of the population for rebellion.”</p>
<p>First, there should be local and national “agitation” – the organization of boycotts, strikes, and other efforts to suggest public discontent. Then, the “infiltration of foreign organizers and advisors and foreign propaganda, material, money, weapons and equipment.”</p>
<p>The next level of operations would be to establish “national front organizations [i.e. the Syrian National Council] and liberation movements [i.e. the Free Syrian Army]” that would move larger segments of the population toward accepting “increased political violence and sabotage” – and encourage the mentoring of “individuals or groups that conduct acts of sabotage in urban centers.”</p>
<p>Now, how and why would an uncommitted – and ostensibly peaceful &#8211; majority of the population respond to the introduction of violence by opposition groups? The UW manual tells us there is an easy way to spin this one:</p>
<blockquote><p>If retaliation [by the target government] occurs, the resistance can exploit the negative consequences to garner more sympathy and support from the population by emphasizing the sacrifices and hardship the resistance is enduring on behalf of “the people.” If retaliation is ineffective or does not occur, the resistance can use this as proof of its ability to wage effect combat against the enemy. In addition, the resistance can portray the inability or reluctance of the enemy to retaliate as a weakness, which will demoralize enemy forces and instill a belief in their eventual defeat.</p></blockquote>
<p>And so on, and so forth.</p>
<p>The Bush Doctrine today has morphed under President Barack Obama into new “packaging.” Whether under the guidance of the recently-created &#8220;<a href="http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/04/24/is_the_atrocity_prevention_board_a_good_idea_0">Atrocity Prevention Board</a>&#8221; or trussed up as “humanitarian intervention,” the goals remain the same – destabilization of lives and nations in the service of political and economic domination, i.e., “American interests.”</p>
<p>When Arab governments yell &#8220;foreign conspiracy,&#8221; whether or not they are popular leaders they are surely right. There are virtually no domains left in key Arab countries &#8211; from the innocuous-sounding &#8220;civil society&#8221; filled to the brim with US-funded NGOs to the military/intelligence apparatuses of these nations to the Facebook pages of ordinary citizens &#8211; that are untouched by American &#8220;interests.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Ugly American just got uglier. And within these intifadas raging in the region, any Arab population that does not shut itself off from this foreign infiltration risks becoming a foot soldier in an unconventional war against themselves.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/going-rogue-americas-unconventional-warfare-mideast">Al Akhbar English</a> on May 25, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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		<title>Excuse Me, But Israel Has No Right To Exist</title>
		<link>http://mideastshuffle.com/2012/05/19/excuse-me-but-israel-has-no-right-to-exist/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2012 01:37:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sandboxer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Palestine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[peace process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Foreign Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[delegitimization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel has no right to exist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nakba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[One State]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[palestine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Palestinian-Israeli conflict]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mideastshuffle.com/?p=599</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani The phrase “right to exist” entered my consciousness in the 1990s just as the concept of the two-state solution became part of our collective lexicon. In any debate at university, when a Zionist was out of arguments, those three magic words were invoked to shut down the conversation with an outraged, “are [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=599&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/palestine-flag-face-featured.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-605" title="Palestine boy" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/palestine-flag-face-featured.jpg?w=500&h=298" alt="" width="500" height="298" /></a></p>
<p><em>By Sharmine Narwani</em></p>
<p>The phrase “right to exist” entered my consciousness in the 1990s just as the concept of the two-state solution became part of our collective lexicon. In any debate at university, when a Zionist was out of arguments, those three magic words were invoked to shut down the conversation with an outraged, “are you saying Israel doesn’t have the right to exist??”</p>
<p>Of course you couldn’t challenge Israel’s right to exist – that was like saying you were negating a fundamental Jewish right to have…rights, with all manner of Holocaust guilt thrown in for effect.</p>
<p>Except of course the Holocaust is not my fault – or that of Palestinians. The cold-blooded program of ethnically cleansing Europe of its Jewish population has been so callously and opportunistically utilized to justify the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian Arab nation, that it leaves me utterly unmoved. I have even caught myself – shock &#8211; rolling my eyes when I hear Holocaust and Israel in the same sentence.</p>
<p>What moves me instead in this post-two-state era, is the sheer audacity of Israel even existing.</p>
<p>What a fantastical idea, this notion that a bunch of rank outsiders from another continent could appropriate an existing, populated nation for themselves – and convince the “global community” that it was the moral thing to do. I’d laugh at the chutzpah if this wasn’t so serious.<span id="more-599"></span></p>
<p>Even more brazen is the mass ethnic cleansing of the indigenous Palestinian population by persecuted Jews, newly arrived from their own experience of being ethnically cleansed.</p>
<p>But what is truly frightening is the psychological manipulation of the masses into believing that Palestinians are somehow dangerous – “terrorists” intent on “driving Jews into the sea.” As someone who makes a living through words, I find the use of language in creating perceptions to be intriguing. This practice – often termed “public diplomacy” has become an essential tool in the world of geopolitics. <em>Words, after all, are the building blocks of our psychology.</em></p>
<p>Take, for example, the way we have come to view the Palestinian-Israeli “dispute” and any resolution of this enduring conflict. And here I borrow liberally from a previous article of mine…</p>
<p>The United States and Israel have created the global discourse on this issue, setting stringent parameters that grow increasingly narrow regarding the content and direction of this debate. Anything discussed outside the set parameters has, until recently, widely been viewed as unrealistic, unproductive and even subversive.</p>
<p>Participation in the debate is limited only to those who prescribe to its main tenets: the acceptance of Israel, its regional hegemony and its qualitative military edge; acceptance of the shaky logic upon which the Jewish state&#8217;s claim to Palestine is based; and acceptance of the inclusion and exclusion of certain regional parties, movements and governments in any solution to the conflict.</p>
<p>Words like dove, hawk, militant, extremist, moderates, terrorists, Islamo-fascists, rejectionists, existential threat, holocaust-denier, mad mullah determine the participation of solution partners &#8212; and are capable of instantly excluding others.</p>
<p>Then there is the language that preserves &#8220;Israel&#8217;s Right To Exist&#8221; unquestioningly: anything that invokes the Holocaust, anti-Semitism and the myths about historic Jewish rights to the land bequeathed to them by the Almighty – as though God was in the real-estate business. This language seeks not only to ensure that a Jewish connection to Palestine remains unquestioned, but importantly, seeks to punish and marginalize those who tackle the legitimacy of this modern colonial-settler experiment.</p>
<p>But this group-think has led us nowhere. It has obfuscated, distracted, deflected, ducked, and diminished, and we are no closer to a satisfactory conclusion…<em>because the premise is wrong.</em></p>
<p>There is no fixing this problem. This is the kind of crisis in which you cut your losses, realize the error of your ways and reverse course. Israel is the problem. It is the last modern-day colonial-settler experiment, conducted at a time when these projects were being unraveled globally.</p>
<p>There is no “Palestinian-Israeli conflict” – that suggests some sort of equality in power, suffering, and negotiable tangibles, and there is no symmetry whatsoever in this equation. Israel is the Occupier and Oppressor; Palestinians are the Occupied and Oppressed. What is there to negotiate? Israel holds all the chips. They can give back some land, property, rights, but even that is an absurdity – what about everything else? What about ALL the land, property and rights? Why do they get to keep anything – how is the appropriation of land and property prior to 1948 fundamentally different from the appropriation of land and property on this arbitrary 1967 date?</p>
<p><em>Why are the colonial-settlers prior to 1948 any different from those who colonized and settled after 1967?</em></p>
<p>Let me correct myself. Palestinians do hold one chip that Israel salivates over – the one big demand at the negotiating table that seems to hold up everything else. Israel craves recognition of its “right to exist.”</p>
<p>But you do exist &#8211; don’t you, Israel?</p>
<p>Israel fears “<a href="http://reut-institute.org/en/Publication.aspx?PublicationId=3822">delegitimization</a>” more than anything else. Behind the velvet curtain lies a state built on myths and narratives, protected only by a military behemoth, billions of dollars in US assistance and a lone UN Security Council veto. Nothing else stands between the state and its dismantlement. Without these three things, Israelis would not live in an entity that has come to be known as the “least safe place for Jews in the world.”</p>
<p>Strip away the spin and the gloss, and you quickly realize that Israel doesn’t even have the basics of a normal state. After 64 years, it doesn’t have borders. After six decades, it has never been more isolated. Over half a century later, and it needs a gargantuan military just to stop Palestinians from walking home.</p>
<p>Israel is a failed experiment. It is on life-support – pull those three plugs and it is a cadaver, living only in the minds of some seriously deluded foreigners who thought they could pull off the heist of the century.</p>
<p>The most important thing we can do as we hover on the horizon of One State is to shed the old language rapidly. None of it was real anyway – it was just the parlance of that particular “game.” Grow a new vocabulary of possibilities – the new state will be the dawn of humanity’s great reconciliation. Muslims, Christians and Jews living together in Palestine as they once did.</p>
<p>Naysayers can take a hike. Our patience is wearing thinner than the walls of the hovels that Palestinian refugees have called “home” for three generations in their purgatory camps.</p>
<p>These universally exploited refugees are entitled to the nice apartments – the ones that have pools downstairs and a grove of palm trees outside the lobby. Because the kind of compensation owed for this failed western experiment will never be enough.</p>
<p>And no, nobody hates Jews. That is the fallback argument screeched in our ears – the one “firewall” remaining to protect this Israeli Frankenstein. I don’t even care enough to insert the caveats that are supposed to prove I don’t hate Jews. It is not a provable point, and frankly, it is a straw man of an argument. If Jews who didn’t live through the Holocaust still feel the pain of it, then take that up with the Germans. Demand a sizeable plot of land in Germany – and good luck to you.</p>
<p>For anti-Semites salivating over an article that slams Israel, ply your trade elsewhere – <em>you</em> are part of the reason this problem exists.</p>
<p>Israelis who don’t want to share Palestine as equal citizens with the indigenous Palestinian population – the ones who don’t want to relinquish that which they demanded Palestinians relinquish 64 years ago &#8211; can take their second passports and go back home. Those remaining had better find a positive attitude – Palestinians have shown themselves to be a forgiving lot. The amount of carnage they have experienced at the hands of their oppressors – without proportional response – shows remarkable restraint and faith.</p>
<p>This is less the death of a Jewish state than it is the demise of the last remnants of modern-day colonialism. It is a rite of passage – we will get through it just fine. At this particular precipice in the 21st century, we are all, universally, Palestinian – undoing this wrong is a test of our collective humanity, and nobody has the right to sit this one out.</p>
<p>Israel has no right to exist. Break that mental barrier and just say it: “Israel has no right to exist.” Roll it around your tongue, tweet it, post it as your Facebook status update – do it before you think twice. Delegitimization is here – have no fear. Palestine will be less painful than Israel ever was.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/excuse-me-israel-has-no-right-exist">Al Akhbar English</a> on May 17, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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		<title>Homs Opposition: Al Farouq Battalion is Killing Us</title>
		<link>http://mideastshuffle.com/2012/05/13/homs-opposition-al-farouq-battalion-is-killing-us/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 13 May 2012 18:30:08 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Arab Awakening]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[UN Protocol]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mideastshuffle.com/?p=573</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani It is extremely rare to have a direct peephole into events on the ground in Syria. The hard-fought battle over narratives often leaves truth in the dust. But among the cache of recently leaked emails (exclusive to Al Akhbar) from Syrian National Council (SNC) President Burhan Ghalioun’s inbox, comes this gem – [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=573&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/hqdefault.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-592" title="hqdefault" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/hqdefault.jpg?w=500" alt=""   /></a><br />
<em>By Sharmine Narwani</em></p>
<p>It is extremely rare to have a direct peephole into events on the ground in Syria. The hard-fought battle over narratives often leaves truth in the dust. But among the cache of recently leaked emails (exclusive to <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/snc-emails-clinton-kilo-and-al-farouq-batallion">Al Akhbar</a>) from Syrian National Council (SNC) President Burhan Ghalioun’s inbox, comes this gem – important information that further highlights the <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/crunch-time-syria-un-protocol’s-jihadist-problem">glaring loophole in UN Envoy Kofi Annan’s demilitarization plans</a> for Syria: rogue fighters.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/snc-emails-clinton-kilo-and-al-farouq-batallion">email</a> sent to Ghalioun on March 25 summarizes a meeting held by members of various armed opposition groups operating in Homs – chiefly to address the pressing problem of the rogue al-Farouq Battalion.</p>
<p>The email’s author “Abu Majd” claims that 24 different armed groups in Homs started to work together in part because of the behavior of the Farouq Battalion, some of whose members are shown <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=F3tAgNEPCmE#!">in this video</a> from a few days ago. The problem with al-Farouq, says the email, is:</p>
<blockquote><p>“Its monopoly over decision-making in its areas, its attempts to subjugate whoever is outside its command by force, and adopting what they call a “big stick policy” in dealing with other fighters.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Confirming occasional Arab media accounts of fighters turning on each other inside opposition-dominated neighborhoods, Abu Majd accuses the Farouq Battalion of:</p>
<blockquote><p>Unjustified violence against their adversaries and other anti-regime groups that are not subsumed under the rubric of al-Farouq Battalion resulting in a heavy human toll. For example, al-Farouq’s mild punishment/warning to fighters in Bab al-Sibaa led to the death of five martyrs.</p></blockquote>
<p>One wonders how these deaths were characterized in the daily &#8220;<a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/questioning-syrian-%E2%80%9Ccasualty-list%E2%80%9D">casualty counts</a>&#8221; disseminated by Homs activists and reported widely by foreign media.<span id="more-573"></span></p>
<p>Painting a picture of a Homs opposition fraught with disputes that have “plagued the revolutionary movement there,” the email illustrates some fundamental differences in the armed groups. On one hand, you have the participants of the meeting recapped in this email, who clearly view themselves as sharing a distinct outlook, and who insist that:</p>
<blockquote><p>Certain groups within the Syrian opposition and external/regional forces have pushed fighters in Homs to this divided state of affairs…they are aware of the difference between civilian regime loyalists and armed killers…they condemn the few armed men in Homs who have committed violence against civilians in neighborhoods loyal to the regime.</p></blockquote>
<p>Instead, they pin these crimes on “younger men making decisions on their own in line with the language of violence popularized by al-Farouq Battalion and made possible through generous external financial support.”</p>
<p>On the other hand, the email acknowledges another kind of armed opposition on the ground in Homs, which it accuses of fomenting violence against civilians and other fighters, provoking the Syrian regular army, and marching to the tune of foreign donors. On regime provocations, it references the Homs neighborhood of al-Khaldiyieh &#8211; scene of some of the worst violence seen in Syria to date:</p>
<blockquote><p>Al-Farouq’s monopoly over decision-making in Al-Khalidiyeh, which resulted in the neighborhood being targeted with strong artillery strikes due to what some saw as recklessness in attacking Al-Matahen checkpoint (which has continued for days along with shelling Al-Khalidiyeh).<br />
This has resulted in the shelling of Al-Khalidiyeh and the displacement of hundreds of its residents because certain people, exercising exclusive control over decision-making, made an irresponsible decision.</p></blockquote>
<p>Al-Farouq appears to have taken offensive positions against the Syrian Army well in advance of the March 25 email. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAQ_ZACPzBU">This video</a> allegedly shows the militant group claiming responsibility for destroying an army tank in Baba Amr on December 22, 2011.</p>
<p>Baba Amr, of course, was the Homs neighborhood that came under severe government shelling in February, lasting for several weeks and drawing global censure for the alleged massacre of civilians. While the dominant narrative in the international media assumed an unprovoked army attack on a civilian population, there remains little evidence to back this scenario, particularly after information emerged that the neighborhood was an armed opposition stronghold, most of the population had vacated the neighborhood in advance, and reports of <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/hollywood-homs-and-idlib">activists exaggerating violence</a> trickled out.</p>
<p>The email’s accusation that al-Farouq’s “recklessness in attacking Al-Matahen checkpoint” was responsible for the Syrian Army’s shelling of al-Khalidiyeh, is reminiscent of events leading to the shelling of Baba Amr. According to American journalist Nir Rosen, similar <a href="http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2012/02/what-happened-in-homs.html">armed opposition provocations</a> preceded the destructive artillery attacks on Baba Amr. On February 4, Rosen wrote:</p>
<p>“Yesterday opposition fighters defeated the regime checkpoint at the Qahira roundabout and they seized a tank or armored personnel carrier. This followed similar successes against the Bab Dreib checkpoint and the Bustan al Diwan checkpoint. In response to this last provocation yesterday the regime started shelling with mortars from the Qalaa on the high ground and the State Security headquarters in Ghota.”</p>
<p>Narratives about these battles in Syria almost always assume that armed groups are taking defensive positions, chiefly to protect civilian populations. So why then, these repeated provocations of the Syrian regular army, other fighters, and civilian populations?</p>
<p>The March 25 email suggests that the Farouq Battalion’s behaviors are led by its financial backers – specifically, the Saudis:</p>
<blockquote><p>The basis of the crisis in the city today is groups receiving uneven amounts of money from direct sources in Saudi Arabia some of whom are urging the targeting of loyalist neighborhoods and sectarian escalation while others are inciting against the SNC.<br />
They are not national, unifying sources of support. On the contrary, mature field leaders have noted that receiving aid from them [Saudi Arabia] entails implicit conditions like working in ways other than the desired direction.</p></blockquote>
<p>While the email provides valuable first-hand accounts of events on the ground inside one of Syria’s most embattled cities, it raises the important question of how to tackle armed groups – increasingly of the Islamic militant variety – who operate outside local or national opposition frameworks.</p>
<p>For one, these groups and individuals make the task of achieving compliance on any demilitarization plan difficult, if not impossible. If these groups continue violent attacks against security forces and civilians, it is unlikely that the Syrian government would pull back its troops from these areas.</p>
<p>For the Annan Plan to move forward and the UN observers to achieve demilitarization, two things must happen: 1) there must be specific, agreed-upon, detailed provisions for the Syrian army to deal with provocations from groups outside of the UN’s reach, and 2) the UN Protocol must hold external groups and nations who fund these rogue militants responsible for their material support of violence inside Syria.</p>
<p>It is worth mentioning that the Saudis have refused to meet Annan, and along with Qatar, have continued to offer financial assistance to armed Syrian opposition groups – officially, in the form of salaries. Ironically, both nations have been among the quickest to accuse the Syrian government of <a href="http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/04/24/209876.html">violating its commitment</a> to the Annan Plan.</p>
<p>Little is known about the Farouq Battalion, but one of the few journalists &#8211; who must remain unnamed &#8211; to have dealt with them directly tells me that they are the largest armed opposition group operating inside Homs today with around 4,000 to 5,000 militia men. The group&#8217;s roots are militantly Islamist &#8211; the moniker Al Farouq is a reference to the Caliph Umar bin al-Khattab, the second successor to the Prophet Muhammad. Some reports claim that the group plans to declare an Islamic Caliphate in Syria, but holds off on any rhetoric that will strengthen the Syrian government&#8217;s hand.</p>
<p>Al-Farouq&#8217;s stronghold today is in the Khalidiyeh neighborhood of Homs, but its center is in al-Qusayr from which its leader Abu Ali Hardi, a former Syrian intelligence officer in Homs, hails. The militia&#8217;s public frontman is Abdul Razak Tlass, a symbolic figure because his uncle is a general in the Syrian Army. From their base in Homs near the Lebanese border, al-Farouq is well positioned to receive heavy weapons from al Qaa and Irsal via Salafist centers in the north of Lebanon. The group is currently trying to organize their fast-growing ranks into a central command structure &#8211; to date, fighters under the al-Farouq banner have mostly been running themselves independently in Homs&#8217; various neighborhoods.</p>
<p>While the March 25 email sheds much-needed light on one small part of the Syrian armed opposition, it also illustrates just how egregiously misleading existing narratives are on the situation inside the country.</p>
<p>I reference, by example, possibly the only report on opposition group violence assembled by a major international human rights organization. A Human Rights Watch (HRW) <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/20/syria-armed-opposition-groups-committing-abuses">press release from March 20</a> – five days before the email was sent to Burhan Ghalioun – details opposition “abuses” inside Syria, including kidnappings, torture and executions.</p>
<p>Not only does HRW repeat many of the dominant narratives that have falsely defined the Syrian crisis from its inception, but it does so quoting liberally from – wait for it &#8211; the Farouq Battalion. The “media coordinator” from al-Farouq tells HRW:</p>
<blockquote><p>We are not kidnapping soldiers. During an armed confrontation, soldiers surrounded by the FSA are surrendering themselves to the Al-Farouq battalion so we are capturing and not kidnapping the soldiers. After capturing the soldiers, the FSA calls the government to negotiate the terms of their release, but they refuse to negotiate simply because they don’t care about the captured soldiers. The captives are placed in a room, not a prison. The room has one door with a lock but no windows. Al-Farouq battalion is treating them very well.</p></blockquote>
<p>We know better now.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/homs-opposition-al-farouq-battalion-killing-us">Al Akhbar English</a> on May 13, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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		<title>The UN Protocol&#8217;s Jihadist &#8220;Loophole&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://mideastshuffle.com/2012/05/10/the-un-protocols-jihadist-loophole/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 10 May 2012 12:04:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sandboxer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Arab Awakening]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mideastshuffle.com/?p=563</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani Note: In light of today&#8217;s twin bombings in Damascus and the UN Mission&#8217;s feeble response to it, the Security Council needs to close this dangerous loophole in their Syria Protocol &#8211; one that currently allows Jihadists unfettered freedom to bomb, assassinate and terrorize. We have arrived at a determining moment in the [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=563&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/syria_un_qaeda_pic_1.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-566" title="Syria_UN_Qaeda_pic_1" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/syria_un_qaeda_pic_1.jpg?w=500&h=319" alt="" width="500" height="319" /></a><br />
<em>By Sharmine Narwani</em></p>
<p><em>Note: In light of today&#8217;s twin bombings in Damascus and the UN Mission&#8217;s feeble response to it, the Security Council needs to close this dangerous loophole in their Syria Protocol &#8211; one that currently allows Jihadists unfettered freedom to bomb, assassinate and terrorize.</em></p>
<p>We have arrived at a determining moment in the Syrian crisis. The choices are startlingly simple:</p>
<p>1) Cautious, incremental movement toward political reconciliation and reform spearheaded by the Syrian government and closely monitored by Kofi Annan’s UN mission, Moscow, Tehran and Beijing.</p>
<p>2) Dangerous escalation of violence and militarization that will increasingly include foreign jihadists and is likely spill to over into the broader Middle East.</p>
<p>After only one week of observing events in Syria first-hand, United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) commander Major-General Robert Mood spelled out the dwindling options:</p>
<blockquote><p>“I can tell you from my engagement that whomever I meet, they tell me that they want to move on the basis of Kofi Annan&#8217;s Six Point Plan, and that includes the <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/05/20125825450 678313.html">Free Syrian Army</a> locally, and that includes Local Coordination Committees. I am fully aware that there are others with a different agenda, that have other ideas, but I have yet to see a credible alternative to Kofi Annan&#8217;s Six Point Plan. So one way to put it is that it is, for now, the only game in town.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Perhaps he should have said the only “sane” game in town. Because there is that other “game” – the one that seeks forced regime-change at any cost, even if it means having dangerous Salafi militants fight the battle NATO cannot.</p>
<p>Those with “different agendas” and “other ideas” are a diverse group with goals distinctly <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/who’s-afraid-un-observer-mission">opposed to demilitarization, reconciliation and reform</a> along the Annan/Syrian/Russian track.</p>
<p>So far, we understand them to include countries and organizations still intent on materially assisting or weaponizing the armed opposition – in contravention of the spirit of UN <a href="http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/2043(2 012)">Security Council Resolution 2043</a>. After all, only days after Syria approved the Annan Plan, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/04/01/world-syria-ista nbul conference.html">Friends of Syria member states</a> committed millions of dollars in “non-lethal aid” to the rebels. Members Saudi Arabia and Qatar pledged to provide salaries for the fighters and financially reward defectors from the regular Syrian Army, while the Turkish, GCC and western-backed Syrian National Council (SNC) overtly went begging for funds to increase weapons supplies to armed groups inside Syria.</p>
<p>If Annan does things right, these nations and groups can be bullied and cajoled into compliance via a more robust set of UN Protocols, expressly drafted to change their behaviors.</p>
<p>No, the 600-pound gorilla in the room with “different agendas” and “other ideas” is not so much the GCC-NATO backed armed militias scattered throughout the country’s opposition strongholds. It is the growing presence of al-Qaeda and other jihadists operating inside the Syrian theater.<span id="more-563"></span></p>
<p><strong>Militant Jihadists: Turning Point in Syria</strong></p>
<p>In early February, unnamed <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/02/10/138593/us-officials-al-qa ida-behind-syria.html#storylink=cpy">US officials confirmed</a> that al-Qaeda was responsible for the December 23 and January 6 bombings in Damascus and was also likely behind the double suicide blasts in Aleppo on February 10. This unexpected confirmation from Washington <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/01/02/jihadists-are-makin g-headway-in.html">rang alarm bells</a><br />
, but not enough to slow down NATO-GCC efforts to incautiously promote regime change in Syria.</p>
<p>That changed slightly a few days later when <a href="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/jihadist-opportunities-syria">al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri</a> delivered his eight-minute internet speech “<a href="http://jihadology.net/2012/02/11/as-saḥab-media-presents-a-new-v ideo-message-from-al-qaidahs-dr-ayman-al-ẓawahiri-onward-oh-lions-of- syria">Onward, Oh Lions of Syria</a>” urging fellow jihadists from neighboring Muslim countries to join the battle in Syria. Chat rooms on jihadist websites revealed that militants from Iraq, Libya, Lebanon and elsewhere were already engaged inside the country. Video clips circulated on the web showed gruesome violent crimes by militant Islamists against both Syrian security forces and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=IkJ6g Hu7BzM">other Islamists</a>, while radical sheikhs were televised ordering acts of retribution <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0U9Rw6tVwI">against civilian<br />
members</a> of Syria’s ruling Alawite sect.</p>
<p>On Syria’s border with Lebanon, jihadist activities have skyrocketed. The Libya-origin arms shipment destined for Syria and intercepted by the Lebanese Army two weeks ago was no lone incident – it was the fourth such “capture.” And just ten days ago, a fellow reporter captured on film Jihadists transporting heavy weapons like Stinger shoulder-held<br />
surface-to-air missiles, Cobra anti-tank missiles and Sam-7 surface-to-air missiles into Syrian territory.</p>
<p>In a recent BBC Arabic interview, National Coordination Committee (NCC) official Haytham Manna, a leading opposition figure, surprised many by acknowledging the role of “non-Syrians” in the armed groups:</p>
<blockquote><p>“Jihadist groups that fought from Afghanistan to Bosnia and therefore this third group for us constitutes a grave danger. For your information, I can share names of 3 members of the Free Syria Army who were killed at the hands of Arab fighters &#8211; non-Syrians.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Says Manna: “Our problem today is that we don&#8217;t have control over who carries arms.&#8221;</p>
<p>So now it appears the jihadist element inside Syria is going to put the international community to a test.</p>
<p>The shaky April 12 ceasefire under the Annan Plan has been rocked recently by a series of bombings and targeted assassinations, with both sides accusing the other of violations.</p>
<p>The fact is, even if the Syrian government were to withdraw all troops from populated areas, and Major-General Mood’s contacts within the main armed opposition groups agreed to lay down arms, there are parties on the ground in Syria that are currently operating outside of the<br />
UN’s reach.</p>
<p>The UN draft Protocol which lays out the terms for the “cessation of armed violence” between the two sides, only refers to the non-governmental party vaguely as “armed opposition groups and relevant elements.”</p>
<p>This is no longer sufficient.</p>
<p>There can be no cessation of hostilities in Syria unless all groups cease fighting. There can be no guarantees until there is clarity about <em>who is in the fight.</em></p>
<p>This does not necessarily mean the end of Annan’s efforts. It does mean, however, that the final UN Protocol document needs to be revised to <em>specify</em> the various parties held accountable on the “armed opposition” side. And if there are groups that will not cooperate<br />
with the mission and will continue to carry out armed operations, there must be clear and precise provisions for <em>how and when the Syrian security forces can deal with these armed entities.</em></p>
<p><strong>Al-Qaeda: Syria, Then Where?</strong></p>
<p>On Tuesday, Syria’s representative at the United Nations Bashar al-Jafari provided the Security Council with a surprise CD containing confessions from more than two dozen jihadists, placing the UN body on notice. A well-connected intelligence source confirmed last week that among the documentation compiled on foreign fighters &#8211; some killed, some captured &#8211; are nationals of at least two European states.</p>
<p>The Russians have been spitting mad about the fact that the UN Protocol “ties the regime’s hands” in dealing with the Syrian jihadist element, and in the past week they have made little effort to hide this problem.</p>
<p>In a statement, the Russian foreign ministry slammed recent “<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0430/Syrian-up rising-shifts-toward-suicide-bombings.-Al-Qaeda-s-handiwork-video">terrorist attacks</a> …for escalating violence in the country to thwart the implementation of the peace plan.”</p>
<p>These fatal attacks come at a time when Moscow is working overtime to negotiate power-sharing roles in a new Syrian political environment with members of the Syrian domestic opposition.</p>
<p>But Washington too has a big role to play in Syria in the next few weeks, and it needs to make its mind up fast. <a href="http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/04/26/time_for_a_rethink_of_us_policy_towards_syria">Geoffrey Aronson</a>, director of research at the Foundation for Middle East Peace, points out that the Obama administration is rudderless on Syria – “unable to support a solution with the regime and its allies,” they “snipe at the Annan mission<br />
from the sidelines” with no real plan in mind:</p>
<blockquote><p>Lacking a strategic compass, Washington finds itself not leading from behind but being dragged from behind in support of the policies and agendas of others — including in the Gulf and among the Syrian National Council — that promise at best to continue bleeding the regime, its opponents, and the long-suffering Syrian people, and that threaten the institutional and even the territorial integrity of the Syrian state.</p></blockquote>
<p>Al-Qaeda is no longer a small hierarchical group – today, it is more of an “idea” whose informal “membership” consists of individual cells that are difficult to snuff out. This is an opportunistic and expansionist ideology that has at its very roots an axe to grind with the United States, Israel and the rulers of Saudi Arabia – the latter nation being <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8182847/Wi kileaks-Saudis-chief-funders-of-al-Qaeda.html">the largest source of funding</a> for this brand of militant jihadism in the world.</p>
<p>If “spoiler” groups inside Syria continue to receive funding and support from external parties – unchecked and ignored by the UN Security Council &#8211; and ongoing violence threatens to sidetrack political reform and reconciliation, there are likely to be repercussions against regional states participating in these provocations.</p>
<p>Parties opposed to western hegemony in the Middle East see the battle in Syria as an existential one, and sources say that if all cards are exhausted, the fight can opportunistically be moved to vulnerable bordering states &#8211; and even into the Persian Gulf where jihadists have their own axe to grind with pro-US, pro-Israel monarchies.</p>
<p>A single major explosion in Riyadh or World Cup-intent Doha can fundamentally rock the internal dynamics and external outlook of those countries.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, Kofi Annan briefed the Security Council on his Plan in Syria: &#8220;If it fails, as the Secretary-General has warned, it will affect the whole region.&#8221; He added that he was not just speaking of the Syrian government or armed groups “but also the governments which have<br />
influence on the opposition.”</p>
<p>It is crunch time in Syria. Allow the jihadist battle to take flight there, and there is no telling how far and wide this fight will spread. The Annan Plan is the “only game in town,” and the Syrian Army the only military force that can take action against these militants.</p>
<p>Define this common enemy in a revised UN Protocol &#8211; and draft a Security Council-approved plan to target these foreign fighters. Or else stop complaining about Al Qaeda explosives smuggled onto flights destined for the United States and beyond.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/crunch-time-syria-un-protocol’s-jihadist-problem">Al Akhbar English</a> on May 9, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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		<title>Syria: Who&#8217;s Afraid of the UN Observer Mission?</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 12:13:18 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani There is a lot of noise coming out of different quarters about the “imminent collapse” of the UN observer mission in Syria. “Dead on arrival,” says one American commentator. “Failure to uphold truce,” accused the White House and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, pointing fingers at the Syrian government. French Foreign Minister [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=557&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/ce5a7fe6772764b7b405c8d47e8c3.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-558" title="CE5A7FE6772764B7B405C8D47E8C3" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/ce5a7fe6772764b7b405c8d47e8c3.jpg?w=500&h=375" alt="" width="500" height="375" /></a><em></em></p>
<p><em>By Sharmine Narwani</em></p>
<p>There is a lot of noise coming out of different quarters about the “imminent collapse” of the UN observer mission in Syria. “Dead on arrival,” says one American commentator. “Failure to uphold truce,” accused the White House and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, pointing fingers at the Syrian government.</p>
<p>French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe warned the international community – just one day after the Mission Protocol was signed – to “prepare for the possible failure” of peace efforts. The very same day, his US counterpart Hilary Clinton enthused: &#8220;We need to start moving very vigorously in the Security Council for a Chapter 7 sanctions resolution,” which allows for UN resolutions to be militarily enforced.</p>
<p>The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood was more specific about their concerns. They’re worried about the “non-objective results it might issue.”</p>
<p>Non-objective results? This sounds all too familiar. Usher in the discourse surrounding the Arab League observer mission in December/January, and you will find the exact doom-and-gloom rhetoric from more or less the same cast of characters, this time headed by Western-allies Qatar and Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p>Ironically, it was Qatar and Saudi Arabia who vigorously championed the Arab League Mission until Syria decided to participate. The moment it became clear that monitors would enter Syrian hotspots and report back their observations, those two countries started counter-spinning aggressively against the investigative mission, eventually scuttling it altogether.</p>
<p>Next came their demands to “upgrade” to an “international” observer group led by the United Nations. But now that the Syrian government has agreed to the terms of the UN mission, the negative rhetoric – from the same geopolitical bloc of nations/allies – is once more threatening to cast doubt on the mission and its ability to positively impact events in Syria.<span id="more-557"></span></p>
<p><strong>Why Some Fear a Successful Mission</strong></p>
<p>The question is why? Why would this bloc of nations – essentially spearheaded by the US, UK, France, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia – actively seek to scuttle the UN Observer mission?</p>
<p>Firstly, a successful mission would mean the de-militarization of the Syrian conflict, with armed opposition groups laying down their weapons for good. That, of course, would herald the end of “forced” regime change, and with it, any hopes to control political outcomes in Syria.</p>
<p>Secondly, a successful mission would effectively put an end to a major part of the GCC-NATO counter-revolution in the region. The Arab intifadas that once threatened to target only pro-Western dictatorships, will whirl back in that direction with the focus removed from Syria. Still unresolved in the region are intifadas in Bahrain, Yemen, Egypt, and Libya. Without the crisis in Syria, the Mideast geopolitical balance of power would move sharply away from the hegemonic interests of the West and its regional allies.</p>
<p>Thirdly, a successful mission would provide answers to some very important questions about what is going on inside Syria: Who is killing who? Who is initiating the violence? How many Syrians have been detained by the regime? How many have been kidnapped by all sides? This vital information has been held hostage to a propaganda war waged by various interested parties on both sides – few of them interested in truth.</p>
<p>And here’s why…look at the overall <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/foolishly-ignoring-arab-league-report-syria">conclusions of the last group of observers</a> on Syrian soil, and see how they markedly differ from today’s dominant narratives about the Syrian conflict. In January 2012 – among other things – the Arab League Monitors reported two surprising counter-narratives:</p>
<blockquote><p>The Syrian government “strived to help it succeed in its task and remove any barriers that might stand in its way. The government also facilitated meetings with all parties. No restrictions were placed on the movement of the mission and its ability to interview Syrian citizens, both those who opposed the government and those loyal to it.”</p>
<p>“Recently, there have been incidents that could widen the gap and increase bitterness between the parties. These incidents can have grave consequences and lead to the loss of life and property. Such incidents include the bombing of buildings, trains carrying fuel, vehicles carrying diesel oil, and explosions targeting the police, as well as members of the media and fuel pipelines. Some of those attacks have been carried out by the Free Syrian Army and some by other armed opposition groups.”</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Evidence-Based Assessments is the Way Forward</strong></p>
<p>The mainstream media almost entirely ignored the Arab League monitors&#8217; report. But as a new observer mission gets off the ground – perhaps a last chance to avert a civil war in Syria – it will be critical to make this UN mission as transparent as humanly possible.</p>
<p>To that end, I am providing links to two important recent documents that should be more readily accessible to the public. Many more will follow over the course of the next 90 days, and these should be avidly scrutinized for nuance missed by much of the media.</p>
<p>The first one is the draft protocol agreed between Syria and all 15 members of the United Nations Security Council on 19 April 2012. For whatever reason, this was difficult to come by, and I found this version uploaded by Ben Moran, the United Nations/New York Producer for Al Jazeera English, on <a href="http://twitdoc.com/view.asp?id=45381&amp;sid=Z0L&amp;ext=PDF&amp;lcl=190412-note-by-the-Secretariat.pdf&amp;usr=benmoran&amp;doc=90207289&amp;key=key-2jyah2qvgitebtahigkx" target="_blank">TwitDoc</a>.</p>
<p>It is a worthwhile read. The requirements that the Syrian government needs to meet are precise and tougher than expected given that this was the draft provided by Syrian-ally Russia. Although both sides in this conflict are required to cease violence within specific guidelines, some of the demands made on the armed opposition suggest that the UN is aware of things that the mainstream media does not readily report. For example:</p>
<blockquote><p>16. Armed opposition groups and relevant elements operational requirements:</p>
<p>a. Cease all acts of aggression against Syrian Army formations, bases, convoys and infrastructure;<br />
b. Cease all acts of aggression against Government agencies, buildings, infrastructure as well as private and public properties and not to hinder the resumption of public services;<br />
c. Commit to stop all illegal activities according to Syrian law, including assassinations, kidnapping or vandalism; and to return all public and private property, stolen through violence, to their rightful owners.<br />
d. Refrain from training, rearming, regrouping or reorganizing military formations;<br />
e. Cease public and private display of weapons;<br />
f. Commit, in accordance with Syrian law, not to conduct or initiate activities such as establishing checkpoints, conducting patrols or policing activities.<br />
g. Allow the safe return of all affected people to their places of residence.</p></blockquote>
<p>This text in the UN Protocol is revealing because these are not narratives often heard or confirmed about activities related to the armed opposition inside Syria.</p>
<p>We are much more likely to hear about atrocities committed by the Syrian government, whether confirmed or not. And this brings us to the second document that is worth a read – primarily because it provides insights into how the media can spin information to create skewed impressions.</p>
<p>Since the six-point plan of UN Special Envoy Kofi Annan went into effect, and the parties to this conflict were required to cease hostilities, there has been an onslaught of stories of shelling, gunfire, and massacres attributed to the Syrian government. None of these have been verified or confirmed. But Western media and politicians – the UN secretary-general included – have highlighted quotes from an Annan document that appear to give credence to these allegations against the regime.</p>
<p>In fact, <a href="/sites/default/files/Annan_Briefing.pdf">Annan’s briefing</a> to the UN Security Council on April 24, 2012 (courtesy of <a href="http://www.innercitypress.com">Inner City Press</a>) was far more nuanced:</p>
<p>While Annan expresses “concern” and “alarm” about “media reports” of continued violence by the Syrian government in Hama, Idlib, and Deraa – all reported widely by mainstream media – he also reveals: “the government continues to provide me with reports of attacks by armed groups inside the country, including bombings and armed attacks on soldiers and public property.”</p>
<p>Annan then cautions: “We continue to be hampered by the lack of verified information in assessing the situation,” and references Homs, “where violence has dropped significantly in response to the presence of a very small number of observers.”</p>
<p>He reminds his audience that the goal of observation is not only to “see what is going on,” but in its “potential to change the political dynamics.” The six-point plan is not just to halt violence and “freeze the situation.” On the contrary, says Annan, its implementation “should provide an enabling environment for my efforts to facilitate a genuine political process.”</p>
<p>But perhaps the most important part of the briefing is in item #11 when he introduces new “important information to share with you” which Annan claims “should make a real difference on the ground, if it is scrupulously applied:”</p>
<blockquote><p>On April 21, the Syrian Foreign Minister informed me that, and I quote, “the withdrawal of massed troops and heavy weapons from in and around population centers is now complete and military operations have ceased.”</p></blockquote>
<p>What follows is further detail from FM Walid Muallem on the extent and nature of compliance with the UN plan – and then Annan’s request for further assurances from the Syrian authorities.</p>
<p>This news is important because the Syrian government has claimed <em>compliance</em> – and this can either be verified as accurate, or disputed. But where are the UN observers who can investigate the distinction? Why did it take only a few days to bring 166 Arab League monitors into Syria last December, but will reportedly take 30 days to bring in 100 of the promised 300 UN observers?</p>
<p>That is an absurdly lengthy interval during which “spoilers” can do a lot of harm inside Syria.</p>
<p>The Syrian government has reportedly rejected accepting observers from any country that has joined the anti-regime “Friends of Syria” coalition, which consists of about 70 nations. But there are approximately another 124 nations to choose from, which shouldn’t hold things up.</p>
<p>Instead, to hasten the process, Syrian President Bashar al Assad has reportedly requested that the first batch of observers be drawn from the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) stationed in the Golan Heights since 1974 to supervise the ceasefire line there. UNDOF observers have already been vetted by the Syrian government and would be able to move into the new observer capacity quickly. Ban Ki Moon, surprisingly, has not rushed to embrace this obvious quick-fix.</p>
<p>In the meantime, as we await this observation team, the propaganda war continues to fuel tensions. Bombings in Damascus and Idlib in the past few days &#8211; and vessels captured by the Lebanese Army bearing Libyan weapons destined for the armed opposition &#8211; threaten to derail mediation efforts.</p>
<p>As this process of demilitarization and national reconciliation unfolds – aided hopefully by objective observers on the ground inside Syria – it will be vital to focus only on credible, verifiable information to keep cool heads. Reports and agreements that provide transparency are critical in this process, as are the statements of <em>official</em> spokesmen – not those of politicians.</p>
<p>We need to put a stop to unverified accusations that serve the political interests of the few. Thirteen months into this conflict, it is time to finally get empirical about events in Syria. That, of course, only applies to those who don’t have anything to hide – and to those who are unafraid of this UN observer mission in Syria.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/who%E2%80%99s-afraid-un-observer-mission">Al Akhbar English</a> on April 30, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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		<title>Western Journalist: Visa Denied</title>
		<link>http://mideastshuffle.com/2012/04/22/western-journalist-visa-denied/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 01:02:14 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani &#160; Item number five on UN Envoy Kofi Annan’s 6-point plan for Syria is the following: “(5) Ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists and a non-discriminatory visa policy for them.” At a delicate moment in the hard-fought Syrian conflict that could potentially destabilize the entire Middle East, the United [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=547&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/all-media-logos1.jpg"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-551" title="All media Logos" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/all-media-logos1.jpg?w=500&h=300" alt="" width="500" height="300" /></a>By Sharmine Narwani<br />
&nbsp;</p>
<p>Item number five on UN Envoy Kofi Annan’s 6-point plan for Syria is the following:</p>
<p><em>“(5) Ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists and a non-discriminatory visa policy for them.”</em></p>
<p>At a delicate moment in the hard-fought Syrian conflict that could potentially destabilize the entire Middle East, the United Nations believes getting more journalists into Syria is one of the six most urgent actions to consider?</p>
<p>Why? Are foreign reporters trained in special “observer” skills – with unique truth-detecting abilities bubble-wrapped in bullet and mortar-proof goop? And what will they see that Syrians – who know Syria best – cannot observe for themselves?</p>
<p>What the UN is really demanding – let’s be honest here – is for the Syrian government to open up the country to “Western” journalists. Yet, in all the conflicts covered in recent years, I cannot recall one that has been more badly covered by the mainstream western media than this Syrian crisis.</p>
<p>Almost to a person, western journalists are blaming their substandard coverage on the fact that they have been denied entry into Syria. And also – to a person – they seem to think that the world needs them there to understand what is going on inside the country.</p>
<p>Paul Conroy, the Sunday Times freelance cameraman who was injured by an explosive in Homs in February, tells the BBC’s Hard Talk that Syrians need their events verified by people like himself and his now-deceased colleague, war correspondent Marie Colvin, in order to be believed:</p>
<blockquote><p>“It is a sad state of affairs that it does need people to go in…and actually be Western and be official journalists to make it real in the public eye.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Is that like a Western-journalist-verification-stamp of some sort? Does it come with a guarantee – for accuracy in reporting?</p>
<p>Because, right now, I honestly cannot think of a group of people less capable of verifying things in Syria than western journalists. And it is not because they aren&#8217;t physically there or can&#8217;t string together more than two words in Arabic. It is largely because they feast at the trough of their own governments’ narratives on All Things. Western journalists are heady with a sense of righteousness leached from the oxymoronic “western values” shoved down our collective throats. Those same western values that demand “accountability” and “transparency” from all nations – while offering cover for western governments to hack their way through Muslim and Arab bodies in endless &#8220;national security&#8221; wars.<span id="more-547"></span></p>
<p>Do tell… Which major mainstream western media outlet has ever fundamentally questioned their government’s narratives on these wars? Which major western journalist risked career for truth on affairs related to the Middle East? Give me the name of that brave western network reporter who disrupts press conferences regularly with inconvenient questions on weapons sales to Gulf dictatorships – and has his bosses go to the wall to ensure he remains in the White House press pool. Show me the western reporter at the Washington Post, New York Times, CNN, BBC, France 24 who has made a career of doggedly questioning Israel’s disproportionate use of force against civilian populations – a journalist who sticks a microphone under Sarkozy, Obama or Cameron’s nose and bellows: “What fucking Peace Process are you chaps banging on about?”</p>
<p>No? Not one? Come on!</p>
<p>“No Syrian Visa” is just a convenient excuse for the lazy and sloppy reporting of western media in this Syrian conflict. It is a handy sound bite these days – one that quite deliberately ignores the Arab League Monitor’s January 2012 Report that 147 foreign and Arab media organizations were operating in Syria during their month-long observations.</p>
<p>&#8220;No Syrian Visa&#8221; tries hard to distract from the reality that most western journalists never actually go out to the front lines of conflict when filing their stories. Increasingly, reporters are sent out in organized pools by host governments – or in the case of recent US-initiated wars in the Middle East – by the invading armies.</p>
<p>&#8220;No Syrian Visa&#8221; selectively forgets that entering US-foe Syria as a journalist today is no more difficult than waltzing into US-ally Saudi Arabia &#8211; or US-ally Bahrain, when Formula One cars are not racing there.</p>
<p>And &#8220;No Syrian Visa&#8221; will blush hard when recalling that there was no similar collective western media outrage when the government of Israel declared &#8220;No Gaza Entry&#8221; as it pounded Palestinian populations in 2008-9.</p>
<p><strong>Glossy Journalists Seek Content Not Facts</strong></p>
<p>No. The problem with western reporters is that they are past their due date – remnants of an industry we once believed brandished standards of objectivity we never actually witnessed.</p>
<p>They are news-as-entertainment professionals &#8211; packaging glossy corporate content for maximum distribution and big bucks. The goal is not objective reportage. Their targets are quantifiable and highlighted in a business plan somewhere. Success is based on a simple formula: stay within parameters “understandable” to a wide audience that devours sound bites and familiar storylines on the hour, every hour. Like trained seals whose every desire, instinct and buying pattern has been measured by corporate media’s marketing department for the consumption of its advertisers, the audience demands satisfaction – and western media delivers it.</p>
<p>With the exception of a few proud holdouts, western media has made a beeline for the sexy story in Syria – which is essentially the fairytale of the “Arab Spring” with a little twist: Bad regime, good activists – but kick out <em>this</em> dictator and it’s a three-for-one, with Iran and Hezbollah tossed in as a bonus.</p>
<p>There are only three guiding rules for most western journalists inside or outside of Syria: 1) only quote anti-regime populations, 2) do not seek out independent domestic opposition figures, 3) evidence is unimportant, as long as you loosely &#8220;source&#8221; it:</p>
<p>They head straight for the Syrian activist, the anti-regime demonstration, the man with the gun in a “hot spot.” These are one side of the Syrian story, for sure. But you will not find mainstream western journalism broadcasting a pro-regime rally of tens of thousands, the national flag painted on the faces of Assad supporters – young and old &#8211; waving posters of their president. Pro-regime Syrians, a majority of whom voted in a national referendum in February to adopt constitutional reforms, are never interviewed by these reporters.</p>
<p>You will not find western journalists side-stepping the NATO-friendly Syrian National Council (SNC) “opposition” to interview the dozens of domestic Syrian opposition figures – most who have spent years in regime prisons – but who also unanimously reject the militarization and internationalization of the conflict; i.e., “non-Syrians butt out.”</p>
<p>And most importantly, you will never find mainstream western journalism seeking out “evidence” to support the false narratives of their governments. Who is included in the daily death count reported around the world? Who has killed thousands of Syrian soldiers? Who is killing children in Syria? Who is killing journalists in Syria? Who stands to gain from these deaths? Who stands to gain from this video footage or still photo emailed to my desktop? How do I know that plume of smoke was caused by a regime mortar? Who is the sniper? Why do so many Syrians still support Bashar al-Assad?</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/4-3-hegemony-city.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-552" title="4-3-Hegemony-City" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/4-3-hegemony-city.jpg?w=500&h=371" alt="" width="500" height="371" /></a>Propaganda As a Weapon of War</strong></p>
<p>The “Big Lie” is a propaganda technique used liberally by western governments in the Middle East. The Big Lie refers to “the repeated articulation of a complex of events that justify subsequent action. The descriptions of these events have elements of truth, and the Big Lie generalizations merge and eventually supplant the public&#8217;s accurate perception of the underlying events.”</p>
<p>Using Big Lie techniques in the Middle East are particularly easy because western media is so happily complicit in propagating one-dimensional stereotypes of Arabs and Muslims. These assumptions are programmed so deeply, that even after months of watching on our TV screens disparate populations of all backgrounds and political convictions rally to reshape their governing systems…we still see regional events only through the prism of a one-size-fits-all Arab Spring.</p>
<p>The US Military’s Special Forces Unconventional Warfare manual describes ways to overthrow a government outside of a conventional combat format. In a section headlined “Will of the Population,” the manual explains ways to overcome popular support for the existing national government and alter natural hostility to foreign intervention:</p>
<p>“Information activities that increase dissatisfaction with the hostile regime or occupier and portray the resistance as a viable alternative are important components of the resistance effort. These activities can increase support for the resistance through persuasive messages that generate sympathy among populations.”</p>
<p>The manual expounds on this in another area: “The USG (US Government) begins to shape the target environment as far in advance as possible. The shaping effort may include operations to increase the legitimacy of U.S. operations and the resistance movement, building internal and external support for the movement, and setting conditions for the introduction of U.S. forces. …The population of a recently occupied country may already be psychologically ready to accept U.S. sponsorship, particularly if the country was a U.S. ally before its occupation. In other cases, psychological preparation may require a protracted period before yielding any favorable results.”</p>
<p>The Syrian crisis is not about reforms any longer – it has become a geopolitical battle for influence in the Middle East, with NATO, the GCC and BRIC nations taking sides. Western media fails to address this larger picture, so glaringly obvious to people in the region. Instead it focuses almost entirely on the “David vs Goliath” or &#8220;good vs evil&#8221; themes that appeal to a broad audience of dumbed-down media consumers. These populations in turn become perception &#8220;leaders&#8221; when they back foreign military adventures in opinion polls broadcast back to us by &#8211; you guessed it &#8211; western media. And in that neat trick, your western government checks off a tick-box called &#8220;citizen approval.&#8221;</p>
<p>But Syrians have approved no such thing. More than a year after the first anti-government protests &#8211; which have never grown into the hundreds of thousands and millions experienced elsewhere in the region &#8211; Syrians have not ejected their leader, nor is there any evidence that the majority of Syrians wish to do so. The constitutional referendum in February, which a small majority of Syrians approved in an excellent turnout, should have been some indication for the media that popular sentiment is not necessarily reflected in an unverifiable cellphone image.</p>
<p>The daily <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/questioning-syrian-%E2%80%9Ccasualty-list%E2%80%9D">casualty statistics</a> coming out of Syria are deliberately misrepresented as regime &#8220;kills,&#8221; <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/high-tech-trickery-homs">satellite photos</a> of alleged regime shelling contradict the dominant narratives, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani/stratfor-challenges-narra_b_1158710.html">activists faking events</a> begs the question &#8220;why would they need to <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/hollywood-homs-and-idlib">falsify evidence</a> if the regime is so brutal?&#8221; But western media hears and sees nothing that doesn&#8217;t suit their formulaic narrative.</p>
<p>There is no better example of how mentally embedded western media has become with the Syrian “opposition” (itself a very broad and mixed bag), than a recent incident with CNN in Homs. Correspondent Arwa Damon and her non-Arab crew were tipped off about a potential pipeline explosion, so they pre-positioned their camera in a window frame facing the exact location of the anticipated bombing. When the pipeline explodes some time later, Damon and her crew look exultant – almost drunk on their success. Scoop? <em>Try complicity in an act of terrorism.</em> Can you imagine them doing this if the target was an American installation in Iraq or a NATO depot in Afghanistan? They would never live it down.</p>
<p><strong>Reality Check</strong></p>
<p>A year after the first small protests in Syria, the Syrian government stands strong, bolstered by its many constituencies, and spared the mass defections experienced by other Arab leaders. It appears that propaganda is not enough to shake the foundations of all Arab states. Now is the time for western media to ask why they got it so wrong. And some are indeed questioning their information, sources and assumptions.</p>
<p>There are western journalists who are doing a more than creditable job of writing about Syria from outside the country – the Independent’s Patrick Cockburn and The Guardian’s Seamus Milne come to mind. Please feel free to list other responsible, professional western journalists in the comments section below &#8211; I am sure we all want to celebrate their courage and increase their page views.</p>
<p>As for the others, their arrogance and cowardice is dangerous. False narratives have emboldened Syrians and other regional actors to act incautiously, angrily, even euphorically, when they might have benefited from nuance and calculation. People have died in the <em>spinning</em> of this conflict.</p>
<p>It is clearly time to challenge the dated concept that mainstream western media is impartial, objective or professional in their coverage of Mideast affairs. But we shouldn’t just bemoan this injustice in yet another stream of impotent essays and editorials. We must drag this industry of disinformation into the public arena, and make them accountable throughout the region by <em>acting</em> to affect ratings and readership.</p>
<p>Kofi Annan needs to immediately drop item number 5 on his Syria plan. While freedom of speech is important to uphold &#8211; even more so in times of strife &#8211; today, mainstream western journalism is nothing more than another face of the &#8220;external intervention&#8221; he so gravely warns against. Toss those western journos out of Syria unless they can demonstrate independent, objective, responsible reporting of this conflict. False narratives are costing Arab and Muslim lives. And media &#8220;combatants&#8221; need not apply to practice their craft in this region any longer.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/western-journalist-visa-denied">Al Akhbar English</a> on April 21, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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		<title>Surprise Video Changes Syria &#8220;Timeline&#8221;</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:43:27 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Arab Awakening]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani Of all the myths obstructing the honest portrayal of events in Syria this past year, none has been more fiercely guarded by regime-change advocates than this one stark falsehood: Myth – the Syrian regime has been shooting only unarmed, peaceful protestors until very recently when opposition groups finally decided to arm themselves [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=533&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>By Sharmine Narwani</em></p>
<p><img title="" src="http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/Sharmine_Video_Capture_pic_3.jpg" alt="" width="465" height="346" /></p>
<p>Of all the myths obstructing the honest portrayal of events in Syria this past year, none has been more fiercely guarded by regime-change advocates than this one stark falsehood:</p>
<p><em>Myth – the Syrian regime has been shooting only unarmed, peaceful protestors until very recently when opposition groups finally decided to arm themselves in self-defense.</em></p>
<p>On the contrary, there is clear evidence that armed groups have targeted and killed security forces and civilians from within weeks of the first small protests in March 2011. An earlier investigative piece I wrote on the <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/questioning-syrian-%E2%80%9Ccasualty-list%E2%80%9D">Syrian casualty lists</a> identifies the shooting deaths of nine Syrian soldiers in Banyas on April 10, 2011 as one important timeline marker for premeditated opposition violence.</p>
<p>Ignoring this vital piece of information about the security landscape has helped shape a fundamentally flawed narrative of events in Syria. Furthermore, this false storyline has directly contributed to the escalation of the crisis by inciting rage against the “one-sided” violence of the regime, and emboldening opponents with a misplaced “righteousness” that kills legitimate debate on Syria.</p>
<p>But this narrative has been unraveling in the past few months. Photos and video footage of armed men with heavy weapons proudly declaring their stripes – some of them religious extremists advocating the killing of civilians based on sectarian differences – have been recently making the rounds.</p>
<p>Jihadist web chatter about armed groups in Syria, suicide bombings in Damascus and Aleppo, and now Al Qaeda’s “call to battle” have forced western pundits &#8211; who know a red line when they see one – to grudgingly acknowledge there are two sides in Syria’s violent tug of war.</p>
<p>Quite suddenly, this has forced a shift in the discourse on Syria. Regime opponents have taken care, however, to ensure that the new narrative incorporates the existence of armed groups without challenging the core premise that “the regime massacres peaceful protestors.”</p>
<p>This effectively means that armed opposition can only be introduced into the Syrian crisis “timeline” <em>at a date long after the outbreak of protests.<span id="more-533"></span></em></p>
<p>Consequently, it is only in early 2012 that references to armed militias have trickled into the media marketplace &#8211; and always in the context of a carefully scripted storyline which misleadingly claims – as in this February <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/02/06/is-assads-time-running-out/this-time-assad-has-overreached">New York Times opinion</a> piece: “the resistance” has only “now begun to arm itself and to exercise self-defense.”</p>
<p><strong>Al Jazeera&#8217;s Shaping of the Syrian Story<br />
</strong></p>
<p>Ali Hashem’s resignation from Al Jazeera last month may not have raised an eyebrow in normal circumstances. But the Beirut-based correspondent was one of a number of Al Jazeera employees whose hacked-and-leaked emails displayed a growing dissatisfaction with their satellite network’s biased coverage of Syria.</p>
<p>His exit from the troubled media company is eclipsed, however, by the bombshell he is about to drop.</p>
<p><a href="http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&amp;task=view&amp;id=31&amp;Itemid=74&amp;jumival=8106">Hashem claims</a> Al Jazeera refused to air footage of dozens of armed gunmen engaging with targets inside Syrian territory in May 2011. He and his crew, Hashem reports, also witnessed armed groups entering Syria three weeks earlier, in April 2011, but were only able to capture them on film in May. Some of the weapons they sighted included Kalashnikovs and Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs).</p>
<p>But now Hashem reveals that he has in hand the actual censored video footage of opposition gunmen engaged in clashes in Syria last May and that it will be broadcast later this week.</p>
<p>During a brief preview of the footage on his iPad in a Beirut cafe, the veteran journalist explains: “I have both the footage which Al Jazeera refused to air and footage of the segment that was broadcast. On air, I am telling viewers that I am witnessing armed men clashing with the Syrian army, though what you read on Al Jazeera’s screen says something entirely different. This is in the Talkalakh area on the Syrian-Lebanese border, on the Syrian side. You can see the militants shooting in the video. And when you do a comparison of the two videos, you can see they are in the same place.”</p>
<p>Below is a still shot from Hashem’s exclusive footage showing gunmen operating inside Syria in May 2011:</p>
<p><img title="" src="http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/Sharmine_Video_Capture_pic_1.jpg" alt="" width="465" height="347" /></p>
<p><strong>“Ensa enno fee masallaheen”</strong></p>
<p>The value of the newsworthy footage was not lost on Hashem and his crew, so he was surprised when Al Jazeera’s then-acting head of news told him via phone “ensa enno fee masallaheen” or “forget there are armed men.”</p>
<p>Hashem refused, and a heated defense of professional reporting ethics ensued until he was assured that he could speak freely on the air. He did &#8211; but Al Jazeera did not broadcast the accompanying footage of gunmen while Hashem was on air describing them. The network later insisted that it was a genuine “mistake.”</p>
<p>It will be interesting to see if Hashem’s footage actually changes the dominant view on Syria. There is little incentive for the mainstream media to self-correct a narrative that feeds into a lucrative formula: bad dictator, peaceful protestors, regime change, happy ending.</p>
<p>In fact, it is quite galling to instead see how complicit the various media outlets, human rights groups, governments and major NGOs continue to be in actively supporting a false version of events.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=9028">killing of the nine Syrian soldiers</a> in Banyas last April, for instance, was <a href="http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=9115">whitewashed by Al Jazeera, The Guardian, BBC</a> and other news outlets who quote “activists” saying the nine were executed by fellow soldiers for refusing to fire on civilians. But YouTube searches for some of the dead soldiers – Lieutenant Colonel <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaBWQ9RdSRE">Yasar Qash’ur</a> and Colonel <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQgwWt783mk">Waeb Issa</a> &#8211; shows actively pro-regime funerals, and not the kind of memorial services reserved for opposition sympathizers.</p>
<p>Human rights groups have been even more shameless in underplaying violence by armed opposition groups. Amnesty International’s Syria Researcher Neil Sammonds, on a recent BBC radio interview, famously invokes a “black eye” as one example of armed opposition abuses – as though he genuinely could not recall any significant reports of violence associated with these gunmen. It is a pity for him then that I have in hand the lengthy correspondence between Sammonds and a Syrian activist that details opposition killings, torture and violence – the activist imploring him over and over again to investigate these crimes and highlight their prevalence inside Syria.</p>
<p>An unexpected <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/20/syria-armed-opposition-groups-committing-abuses">press release by Human Rights Watch</a> on March 20 does exactly that. It is the first rights group to highlight opposition violence to this extent, but predictably does so within the old timeline narrative, placing armed groups into the Syrian storyline well after protests kicked off in March 2011. The HRW briefing specifies:</p>
<p>“The protest movement in Syria was overwhelmingly peaceful until <em>September 2011.</em> Since then, an increasing number of media and other reports have said that a growing number of military defectors and local residents have decided to resort to arms, saying they are defending themselves against security forces’ raids or attacking checkpoints and security facilities in their cities.”</p>
<p>I had a chat with HRW researcher Ole Solvag about the discrepancy in these conflicting timelines – and he openly admits: “The key is in the word &#8216;overwhelmingly.&#8217; We don&#8217;t mean to say that there were no violence against government forces before this. What we mean is that anti-government violence became more organized and frequent after this.”</p>
<p>In fact Solvag concedes that there isn’t much that HRW can conclusively state about opposition violence in the early stages of the protest movement. “We have documented that there has been violence used against government forces before September….and against captured soldiers and civilians.” Solvag cautions that this “does not justify the government opening fire on protestors,” and then surprises me with the admission, “even if there were sometimes weapons in the crowds and some demonstrators opened fire against government forces.”</p>
<p>Here’s why I think Ali Hashem’s video footage needs an airing. It is time for a wholesale reevaluation of the facts in the Syrian crisis – beginning on day one, from the ground up, without any of the old assumptions that inhibit investigation outside of the bad-guy-good-guy theme. Maybe there aren&#8217;t any good guys in Syria? Or maybe the crisis in Syria is less about Syrians than it is about the geopolitical aspirations of others? We will only know this more decisively if we scroll back to Hashem&#8217;s April 2011 timeline to find out who hijacked the peaceful protests in Syria. Was it the regime &#8211; or the regime-changers? Unless we trace this back to the beginning, any step forward will be proceeding deaf, dumb and blind in Syria.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/surprise-video-changes-syria-timeline">Al Akhbar English</a> on April 4, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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		<title>I Want My Sunni Back</title>
		<link>http://mideastshuffle.com/2012/03/25/i-want-my-sunni-back/</link>
		<comments>http://mideastshuffle.com/2012/03/25/i-want-my-sunni-back/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Mar 2012 20:05:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sandboxer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Arab Awakening]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hamas]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani There is something quite unique about the Middle East’s “Resistance Axis” which includes Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas and a smattering of smaller groups opposed to western imperialism and zionism. It is the only major grouping or alliance in the region that includes 1) Arab and Iranian, 2) Sunni and Shia, 3) Islamist [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=525&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/610xy-1.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-527" title="Hamas leader Meshaal and Shallah attend rally in Damascus" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/610xy-1.jpg?w=300&h=223" alt="" width="300" height="223" /></a><em>By Sharmine Narwani</em></p>
<p>There is something quite unique about the Middle East’s “Resistance Axis” which includes Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas and a smattering of smaller groups opposed to western imperialism and zionism.</p>
<p>It is the only major grouping or alliance in the region that includes 1) Arab and Iranian, 2) Sunni and Shia, 3) Islamist and Secularist.</p>
<p>People in this part of the world use communal and political affiliations as a calling card. First name, last name, village of origin, neighborhood, school, mosque, church, group of friends, reading material…all of these things are a quick measure of “identity.”</p>
<p>This emotional link to community has often been exploited as a useful political tool to split people across national, political and religious lines. I have written before about these three “<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani/the-middle-easts-stink-bo_b_844907.html”">Mideast Stink Bombs</a>,” cleverly wielded by dictators, religious extremists and western hegemonists to “divide-and-rule” the region’s populations to advantage.</p>
<p>The Resistance Axis poses an existential threat to these antagonists, whose very authority depends on vilifying the “Other:” the longterm <a href="http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&amp;tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38555&amp;tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&amp;cHash=80812bf625d6ca0316fc61874cab6961">Saudi project</a> to demonize <a href="http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/25164776?uid=3738432&amp;uid=2129&amp;uid=2&amp;uid=70&amp;uid=4&amp;sid=21100682625121">the Shia/Iran</a>; pro-US autocrats and monarchies using “radical Islam” as an excuse to <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.aspx">exclude moderate Islamists from the political process</a>; manufacturing an <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani/hillary-dusts-off-iranian_b_832480.html">Iranian “nuclear threat”</a> to isolate a foe and justify weapons sales and military build-ups.</p>
<p>Instead, the rather successful alliance of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah annihilates the argument that these “differences” are unbreachable fault lines in the Middle East. We can see with our own eyes, that here &#8211; standing strong and supportive in the face of common external foes &#8211; are Shiite, Sunni, Islamist, Secularist, Arab and Iranian.</p>
<p><strong>Wrenching Away Our Sunni</strong></p>
<p>So it is not at all surprising that the moment the Arab Spring touched a member of this Axis – Syria –all hands came on board to exploit any vulnerabilities and crow about the imminent break-up of the Resistance.</p>
<p>I recall the Wall Street Journal first breaking the Hamas-defecting-from-Axis story – it was called: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204083204577082471358870022.html">Hamas Removing Staff From Syria</a> – that bit was true. The next two paragraphs, however, greedily projected on the storyline: “The Islamic militant group&#8217;s parting of ways with Mr. Assad…” and the even more ambitious “Leaving Syria also distances Hamas from Iran…”</p>
<p>Plenty of Hamas officials went on the record denying a break with Syria and Iran, but the WSJ story grew legs, arms and heads. Not many western journalists rushed to cover the visit of Hamas’ top official in Gaza travelling to Iran afterward. But they went full-court press when the very same Ismail Hanniyeh addressed a select crowd inside Cairo’s Al Azhar Mosque, saying: “I salute all people of the Arab Spring, or Islamic winter, and I salute the Syrian people who seek freedom, democracy and reform.”</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/world/middleeast/hamas-leader-supports-syrian-opposition.html?_r=1">The New York Times</a>’ unabashed interpretation of that solitary quote leads its breaking story: “A leader of Hamas spoke out against President Bashar al-Assad of Syria on Friday, throwing its support behind the opposition…”</p>
<p>Actually, no. Assad and Iran and Russia and China also claim to support freedom, democracy and reform for the Syrian people. They are just as vague about from whence this freedom, democracy and reform will come as was Hanniyeh during his Friday Prayer sermon.</p>
<p>So where exactly does Hamas stand on Resistance? And what does this mean for the future of the group and the geopolitics of the region?<span id="more-525"></span></p>
<p>The Arab Spring has made way for the “established opposition” in various countries to unseat autocratic governments. The most entrenched opponents of secular, pro-US regimes in the Mideast happen to be Islamists – most of which are of Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) origin, like Hamas.</p>
<p>But while Hamas was marked as an early “winner” of the Arab Spring – their co-religionists in Egypt were, after all, meant to sweep away the previous regime’s oppressive actions against Gaza – they instead found themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place in Syria.</p>
<p>It is the old holdover of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria that forms the backbone of the opposition there. And so Hamas found itself in the indelicate position of being expected to choose between its Islamist identity and its Resistance identity. It is worth noting that other Islamist Resistance Axis members do not seem to struggle with the issue: even other Sunni groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) who have also been under scrutiny over this very issue. It really begs the question: is Hamas just too big a Resistance prize for regional players who want this Axis destroyed? The ones courting Hamas assiduously &#8211; and asking them to make these choices &#8211; are the same ones trying to break Syria&#8217;s back, isolate Iran, neutralize Hezbollah and stop armed resistance in Gaza (PIJ).</p>
<p><strong>Hamas: Islamist or Resistance?</strong></p>
<p>It is a difficult challenge for the group. The fact is that Hamas is both Islamist and Resistance. The question of whether one prevails over the other is an interesting one, and has been with me since my <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani/hamas-chief-interview_b_700324.html">August 2010 interview with Hamas Chief Khaled Meshaal</a>, at which time I concluded: “Hamas is clearly a national liberation movement that has at it roots a &#8220;resistance&#8221; outlook. It&#8217;s focus is the liberation of Palestine from Israeli occupation, and the group&#8217;s Islamist character complements rather than competes with Hamas&#8217; political objectives.”</p>
<p>Meshaal even took a crack at explaining <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani/khaled-meshaal-on-hamas-a_b_738758.html">the roots of the Resistance Bloc</a>, which has long been an area of interest for me: “The forming of this bloc is a natural consequence of events in the region &#8211; firstly, the presence of Israel and its atrocities against the region, and then the failure of the negotiation process to achieve something substantial… So there is a vacuum. There is a fiasco. There is a frustration. There is an increasing fury and anger among the masses. And now, embarrassment at the official level in the region. Resistance has therefore become an attractive model for states in the region.”</p>
<p>Prescient statement. The Arab Awakening, of course, kicked off a few short months later in Tunisia.</p>
<p>But then Meshaal said something very interesting, which I think goes to the heart of this Axis. Pointing to Iran, Syria, Turkey, Sudan and Qatar, Meshaal insisted: “They each have their own modus operandi and interests. Something these nations do share, however, is the self-desire to develop this new trend, but at the same time to remain open &#8211; not closed or bound &#8211; to enjoying options.”</p>
<p>In other words, the Resistance Axis is not an ideological grouping – it is an opportunistic one. An alliance based more on common goals than commonalities. When Saudi Prince Faisal famously quizzed Meshaal about his alliance with Iran, the Hamas chief explained: &#8220;Yes, we have relations with Iran and will do so with whomever supports us. We will say thank you to them, but this is not at the expense of our Arab relations. We are a resistance movement, open to the Arabs, to the Muslims and to all countries in the world, and we are not part of any agenda for regional forces.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Does Hamas know where Hamas is going?</strong></p>
<p>Which brings us to today. In my view, Hamas is exploring its options right now. I have confirmation from both Hamas and Iran that financial assistance continues as before. And it seems that every time speculation about worsening relations hits a peak, a senior Hamas official pops up in Tehran to dispel rumors.</p>
<p>Syria is a much harder problem. Hamas officials tell me that the reason for vacating their political office in Damascus is because other nationals were refusing to meet them in Syria. But let’s be honest, the sectarian undercurrents in both Syria and the region – fanned heavily by Saudis, Qataris, Salafists and the western cabal hyper-focused on Iran – are putting the screws on Hamas.</p>
<p>The group is under tremendous pressure from these parties to break from the Resistance Axis, which many have disparagingly dubbed the “Shiite Cresecnt.” They have offered money, incentives, sanctuary to Hamas. They have used threats. They have invoked the “Brotherhood” of the Sunni. But then consider this: why, a year later, are we are still uncertain of Hamas’ position regarding its alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and Syria.</p>
<p>A rather observant pro-Resistance source remarked the other day: “Hamas is under tremendous pressure to criticize Syria, and that’s all they came up with? It’s not very convincing. Hamas is not giving opinions voluntarily about Syria, I can assure you.”</p>
<p>As Hamas looks to the future and finds many natural co-religionist allies in the various Ikhwan groups emerging on the Arab political landscape, it will be faced with the same dilemma – this time from a different direction. The Islamist character of Hamas may be more fulfilled, but will there be a big gaping hole in their resistance outlook?</p>
<p>Can the Ikhwan get them Palestine? Or can Iran, Syria and Hezbollah fulfill that long-held ambition? Part of the problem with the emerging Ikhwan political parties is that Saudi Arabia, Qatar – even the United States – are trying to guide their direction. If successful, that will not be a comfortable home for Hamas. These new &#8220;mentors&#8221; will not allow them much breathing space – these are the Old Regimes that actively support the regional Old Order and encourage “flexibility” with Israel.</p>
<p>The big horse-and-pony show of a Hamas-Fatah reconciliation led to Fatah&#8217;s Mahmoud Abbas taking the lead. What became of Hamas&#8217; awkward Jordanian visit that was only possible because of Qatari hand-holding? Fatah and Jordan are the last places to look for a Palestinian solution &#8211; they are too beholden to western interests.</p>
<p>The new mentors will bang away at Hamas; demand political blood from the group; push them toward unpalatable concessions. A wise colleague points out: “Hamas will be finished when it becomes Fatah.”</p>
<p>In a 2009 interview with Usama Hamdan, Hamas’ foreign relations chief, told me: “In the West, they try to shape you before dealing with you. This is the Palestinian experience. They&#8217;ve done this with Fatah. Hamas&#8217; position is to say what we are, what we stand for &#8211; clearly &#8211; and we can defend our rights best that way.”</p>
<p>An equally-senior Hamas official told me recently in a lengthy off-the-record conversation that there were “good changes” taking place in the region, but “real dangers” ahead: “The international community does not care about the people of the region…the conflict still is between real independence and being under occupation – or the influence of outsiders.”</p>
<p>He also refuses the notion that Islamist trends in the region will end up hostile to the Resistance: &#8220;You can&#8217;t say the Ikhwan is against Resistance &#8211; they have been real supporters of Hamas.&#8221;</p>
<p>There are two main priorities for Hamas these days, he says: “The needs of the people in the region and dealing with Israel and its supporters.”</p>
<p>Hamas may evolve in the next few years, but if it cleaves to its core values – somewhere in the middle of the current leadership’s political spectrum &#8211; I think you will find a group that will not commit itself to concepts or allies outside of those parameters. The group will talk to all players, consider all options, test the new waters of this fast-changing region – as it should. In the final analysis, it is the liberation of Palestine that bestows popular legitimacy on this group, and Hamas will need to choose the path that best serves that goal.</p>
<p>And Resistance itself might change, as one Hamas official hinted to me. If sectarianism can be contained, when this ferocious geopolitical Battle of the Blocs is over, we might perhaps even see a clean sweep from the Persian Gulf to North Africa of people rejecting foreign hegemony and zionism. This is what the Old Guard fears most – and the vast majority of Arabs, Iranians, Sunni, Shia, Islamists and Secularists support whole-heartedly.</p>
<p>It will take some time, but I will have my Sunni back.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/blogs/sandbox/i-want-my-sunni-back">Al Akhbar English</a> on March 25, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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			<media:title type="html">Hamas leader Meshaal and Shallah attend rally in Damascus</media:title>
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		<title>New Phase in Syria Crisis: Dealmaking Toward An Exit</title>
		<link>http://mideastshuffle.com/2012/03/21/new-phase-in-syria-crisis-dealmaking-toward-an-exit/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2012 21:01:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sandboxer</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Sharmine Narwani In recent weeks, there has been a notable shuffle in the positions of key external players in the Syrian crisis. Momentum has quite suddenly shifted from an all-out onslaught against the Assad government to a quiet investigation of exit strategies. The clashes between government forces and opposition militias in Baba Amr were [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=514&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/regrets_of_a_subprime_mortgage_lender-460x307-1.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-515" title="regrets_of_a_subprime_mortgage_lender-460x307-1" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/regrets_of_a_subprime_mortgage_lender-460x307-1.jpg?w=500" alt=""   /></a><em></em></p>
<p><em>By Sharmine Narwani</em></p>
<p>In recent weeks, there has been a notable shuffle in the positions of key external players in the Syrian crisis. Momentum has quite suddenly shifted from an all-out onslaught against the Assad government to a quiet investigation of exit strategies.</p>
<p>The clashes between government forces and opposition militias in Baba Amr were a clear tipping point for these players – much hinged on the outcome of that battle. Today, the retreat of armed groups from the Homs neighborhood means one thing: the strategy of militarizing the conflict from within is no longer a plausible option on which to hang this geopolitical battle. Especially not in an American or French election year, when anything less than regime change in Syria will look like abject failure.</p>
<p>And so the external players are shifting gears – the more outspoken ones, quietly seeking alternative options. There are two de facto groups that have formed. Group A is looking for a face-saving exit from the promised escalation in Syria. It consists of the United States, European Union and Turkey. Group B, on the other hand, is heavily invested in regime-change at any cost, and includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar and some elements of the French, US, British and Libyan establishments.</p>
<p>Before Baba Amr, these two groups were unified in maximizing their every resource to force regime change in Syria. When the UN Security Council option was blocked by Russia and China, they coalesced around the General Assembly and ad-hoc &#8220;Friends of Syria&#8221; to build coalitions, tried unsuccessfully to bring a disparate opposition fighting force (Free Syrian Army) under central leadership, pushed to recognize the disunited Syrian National Council (SNC), and eked out weekly “events” like embassy closures and political condemnations to maintain a “perception momentum.”</p>
<p>But those efforts have largely come to a standstill after Baba Amr. A reliable source close to the Syrian regime said to me recently: “The regime eliminated the biggest and most difficult obstacle – Baba Amr. Elsewhere, it (eliminating armed militias) is easier and less costly at all levels. Now both political and military steps can continue.”<span id="more-514"></span></p>
<p><strong>Deal-making Begins in Earnest</strong></p>
<p>The first clear-cut public sign of this new phase was the appointment of Kofi Annan as UN envoy to Syria. Annan is an American “concession” that will draw out this deal-making phase between the Syrian government, opposition figures and foreign governments potentially until the May 2012 parliamentary elections.</p>
<p>This phase is what the Russians, Chinese, Iranians and other BRIC countries have sought from the start: the creation of a protective bubble around Syria so that it has the time and space necessary to implement domestic reforms that will not harm its geopolitical priorities.</p>
<p>Deal-making and dialogue can be seen everywhere suddenly. Annan is only a figurehead masking these multilateral efforts. Reports are coming in that the US has kept a steady dialogue with the Syrian regime throughout. Opposition religious figures – mostly Muslim Brotherhood in their day-job guises – have met with the regime in recent weeks. And prominent Syrian reformists who reject military action and are open to dialogue with the regime, are now being sought out by various European governments.</p>
<p>The European Union (EU) kicked things off in March in a joint foreign ministerial communique rejecting military intervention in Syria. This was swiftly followed by Kofi Annan’s strong warning against external efforts to arm the Syrian opposition, with various Americans making similar soundings in his wake.</p>
<p>One very prominent Syrian reformist who has remained engaged with both sides of this conflict, confided that the externally-based Syrian opposition are now “looking over each other’s shoulders – none yet dares to speak out.” The fact is, says the source, “they are getting military assistance, but nowhere near enough. They need much, much more that what they are getting, and now the countries backing this opposition are developing conflicting agendas.”</p>
<p>Three high-level defections from the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) were announced within days of that conversation, hinting further at the fundamental policy shifts occurring in all circles, behind the scenes.</p>
<p>The game has changed along Syria’s borders too. Turkey, a ferocious critic of the Assad government this past year, is reconsidering its priorities. A participant in a recent closed meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reveals the emptiness of Turkish threats to form a “humanitarian corridor” or security zone on their Syrian border. Davutoglu, says my source, insisted in private that “Turkey will not do anything to harm Syria’s territorial integrity and unity because that will transfer the conflict into Turkish territory.”</p>
<p>Recent deliberations with Iran also seem to have resonated with the Turks. During Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi’s January visit to Ankara, a source tells me that an understanding was reached. The Iranian FM is said to have warned Turkish leaders that they were leveraging a lot of goodwill – painstakingly built up in the Muslim/Arab world – in return for “no clear benefit” in Syria. According to my source, the Turks were encouraged to strike a bargain to regain their regional standing – the key concession being that Assad would stay through the reform period.</p>
<p><strong>A Hard Dose of Realpolitik</strong></p>
<p>Although Turkey has backtracked from its belligerent public posture, there are still elements in the country that remain rigid on Syria. The same is true for the US and France. The fact that 2012 is an important election year in both countries plays a part in the strategy shuffle, but there are other pressing concerns too.</p>
<p>One major worry is that there aren’t a lot of arrows left in the quiver to fire at Syria. Without the UN Security Council granting legal authority to launch an offensive against Syria, there are only piecemeal efforts – and these have all been tried, if not yet exhausted: sanctions, demonstrations, arming militias, cyber warfare, propaganda, diplomatic arm-twisting and bribing defectors. But a whole year has passed with no major cracks in support from the regime’s key constituencies, and that has caused some debate about whether this kind of tactical pressure may ultimately backfire.</p>
<p>In Washington in particular, alarm bells have been ringing since militant Islamists infiltrated the Syrian opposition militias, some pouring in from Iraq where they were only recently targeting American interests. The US has spent the better part of a decade focusing its national security apparatus on the threat from Al Qaeda and militant Islam. The execution of Osama Bin Laden and other Al Qaeda-related figures was meant to put a seal on this problem – at least in the sense that the organization has shriveled in size and influence.</p>
<p>But Syria threatens to blast open a Pandora’s Box of newly-motivated “soldiers of God.” And while sectarian anger may be the fuse, the conflagration will take place on a major geopolitical fault line in the Mideast, at a delicate time, on one of Israel’s borders – and changing winds could fan those flames right back in the direction of the United States and its allies.</p>
<p>That is a red line for the US military and a sizeable chunk of the Washington political establishment. There are others Americans, however, who are unable to view the Syrian crisis outside the prism of Iran and its growing regional influence. US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman, who has spent years now orchestrating the defeat of the Iran-led “Resistance Axis,” is one such player in the capital.</p>
<p>Feltman is part of Group B, alongside Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The battle in Syria has become an existential one for Group B. They have played too hard, and revealed too much, to be able to re-assert themselves into any impartial regional role in the future &#8211; unless there is a changing of the guard in Syria.</p>
<p>As Group A moves toward a face-saving exit from the crisis, we are going to witness a re-telling of events in Syria. The western “mainstream media” and major international NGOS, which have served as little more than propaganda tools for various governments seeking to escalate the Syrian crisis and vilify the Assad government, are suddenly “discovering” dangerous elements in the Syrian opposition. This scene-setting is just as deliberate as the false narratives we have witnessed from Group A since the start of the crisis.</p>
<p>Group B, on the other hand, remains unable to take its eye off the Syrian brass ring and may continue to employ increasingly brazen and foolhardy tactics to simulate chaos inside the country. Syria may be Group B’s graveyard unless they are brought into these deals and promised some protection. I suspect, however, that they will instead be utilized as a valuable negotiating tool for Group A &#8211; brought into play if dealmaking is not working to their advantage.</p>
<p>While negotiations plod on over Syria, we can be assured that most external players have little or no consideration for actual Syrians. The regime will be focused on the long haul, which includes ridding the country of armed groups, ensuring that major roadways are free of IEDs and snipers, implementing a watered-down reform program with token opposition members to give lip service to progress, and becoming even more entrenched in the face of regional and foreign threats.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the West and its regional allies will happily draw out a low-boil War of Attrition in Syria to keep the Syrian regime busy, weakened and defensive, while further seeking to cement their hold on the direction of the “Arab Spring.” They will pull levers to create flare-ups when distractions or punishments are warranted, with nary a care to the lives and livelihoods of the most disenfranchised Syrians whose blood is this conflict’s main currency.</p>
<p>It will never be certain if there was a revolution in Syria in 2011. The country became a geopolitical battleground less than a month after the first small protests broke out in various pockets inside Syria. And it is not over by a long stretch. Syria will continue to be the scene of conflict between two regional blocs until one side wins. This may be a new phase in Syria today where players are converging to “cut some losses,” but be assured that they are merely replenishing and repositioning their reserves for a broader regional fight.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published on <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/new-phase-syria-crisis-dealmaking-toward-exit">Al Akhbar English</a> on March 21, 2012</em></p>
<p><strong>Follow the author on <a href="https://twitter.com/snarwani">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sharmine-Narwani-Writer/106821526031251">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sharmine-narwani">The Huffington Post</a> and <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/sharmine-narwani">Al Akhbar English</a></strong></p>
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		<title>Dear Western Journalist&#8230;Stay Home</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Mar 2012 22:08:28 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Dear Western journalist, Please cease using the argument that the reason you are writing crap about Syria is because &#8220;media is not allowed there.&#8221; The Arab League report lists 147 media outlets &#8211; Arab and foreign &#8211; working in Syria in January, 2012. I and a few others who were there at the time were [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=mideastshuffle.com&#038;blog=8284010&#038;post=504&#038;subd=mideastshuffle&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/andersoncooper.jpeg"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-506" title="AndersonCooper" src="http://mideastshuffle.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/andersoncooper.jpeg?w=500" alt=""   /></a>Dear Western journalist,</p>
<p>Please cease using the argument that the reason you are writing crap about Syria is because &#8220;media is not allowed there.&#8221; The Arab League report lists 147 media outlets &#8211; Arab and foreign &#8211; working in Syria in January, 2012. I and a few others who were there at the time were not even on the list. Ahead of me in line at the border was the CBC crew, who was on that list. Perhaps the reason you have such a hard time getting in is because you need to wait &#8211; like CBC Suzy &#8211; for visas for 47 staff and support staff members, including people to hold your over-sized coffee cup as you interview an opposition gunman in that special breathless way you do it. Of course you need a translator for that too, because otherwise you wouldn&#8217;t have a fucking clue if you were in Idlib or Homs now, would you?</p>
<p>You are delighted to air shaky cell phone footage from a person you have never met at the top of the news hour, but balk when there are 50,000 cell phone witnesses at a pro-regime rally. &#8220;Media is not allowed in&#8221; you explain condescendingly. Tell us then, what explains your inability to ask the most elementary of questions when you do write your Syria stories every day, anyway, from outside? You know, questions that go something like this: &#8220;How do you know how many people died today? How do you know their names? Who verified this? Where did the explosion take place? How do you know who was responsible for the explosion? Why do you support Bashar al Assad? Why do you not support the militarization of the conflict? Why do you not support the internationalization of the conflict? Why do you not support sanctions against Syria? Who kidnapped your father? Who shot your uncle? Who killed your child? Who was the sniper?&#8221;</p>
<p>None of us have ever heard a major western journalist ask any of those questions. They are questions that 1) ask for evidence, 2) are addressed to a pro-regime Syrian and 3) are asked of domestic opposition figures. Oh yes &#8211; we need you to be in Syria to &#8220;verify&#8221; things for us precisely because you publish &#8220;unverified&#8221; stories every day and seek to inject &#8220;balance&#8221; into the Syrian story&#8230;in much the same way you do the Palestinian-Israeli story and the Israeli-vs-Iranian nukes one, and the Saudi Arabians-are-moderate-Arabs one &#8211; and that one really poignant story about how Muslims are &#8220;collateral damage&#8221; who become &#8220;terrorists&#8221; when they shoot back.</p>
<p>The idea that Joe Journo needs to be in Syria to tell the world (and Syrians) what is going on, is YOU on colonial crack.</p>
<p>Take your time,</p>
<p>Syria</p>
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